As we begin another year, here are our top predictions for crypto and Web3.
Bitcoin will have a 50% rally in one of the months
The year after the bear market is usually a period of deep consolidation. While we believe that a market bottom may still be found in the next three months, Bitcoin (BTC) should have a solid one-off month that gives hope to long-term ‘hodl’ers.
In 2015 and 2019, the years post-bear markets of 2014 and 2018, BTC had substantial gains month-on-month, two or three times. We anticipate a 50% increase this year in the second half, but, there will still likely be months with negative returns after that. A year-end BTC pricing of $30,000-40,000 will be good, leading to a halving year (2024).
Ethereum becomes truly deflationary
Ethereum’s supply is now based on its usage – the more its utilization, the more ETH is burnt as fees, leading to a deflationary tokenomics. Post the Merge, two out of three months were deflationary with December 2022 reversing this trend. We anticipate ETH to completely turn this one way – a bit like escape velocity. As adoption increases and transactions surge, ETH will become deflationary forever.
Expected upgrades to Ethereum will also aid in this. Naturally, a deflationary product will have higher demand and the possibility of price inflation.
Regulations take their own sweet time
As much as we want governments across the world to sync, react and adopt blockchain technology soon, regulations often take a lot of time to fructify in developed nations. While we will see baby steps in boosting commerce via crypto and Web3, we don’t anticipate big, definitive steps toward a global understanding of how to regulate the industry. Smaller nations are more incentivized currently to adopt crypto and will likely do so.
A new ‘X to Earn’ will be popular again
2021 was the year of ‘Play to Earn’ with Axie Infinity and similar platforms. 2022 saw STEPN launch its‘ Move to Earn’ initiative that grew its MAUs nearly 280x from 2.5K to 700K in just four months. However, that seems to have faded as the crypto ecosystem crashed globally post-May.
We do anticipate a new way to earn trend globally this year – this can be a ‘Listen to Earn’ music app or ‘Watch to Earn’ video app etc. Eventually, an ecosystem will develop to earn crypto tokens for many activities – a loyalty program that encompasses multiple aspects of life.
NFTs will evolve into something more meaningful
While NFTs have been a topic of mixed opinions globally, they continue to be preserved and exhibit their versatility. They have, so far, been defined by speculation rather than a solid use case. That is likely to change starting this year – NFTs will find increasing relevance as a proof of authenticity technology. From supply chain to real estate, healthcare, education, and retail, NFTs will play a key role in various operations.
That said, various global brands have already taken NFTs seriously in their present form. Some are also already reaping rewards – Nike made over $180 million in NFT sales and royalties in 2022. We will see more digital first brands (music, apparel, lifestyle, etc.) do better.
